The answer to this question depends on how you perceive success and failure.  Our latest article published in the May PM World Journal offers several possible alternatives.

However, reflecting on data in the article shows a worrying trend:

1. Using traditional measures, 80% of organizations do appear to have project failure rates averaging around 80%, but this is not the perception of most managers in those organizations.
   
2. Organizations that manage projects successfully achieve a significant cost-benefit over those that do not. Poor project delivery is directly linked to higher project costs.

Therefore, the long sought after answer to Cobb’s Paradox can at last be unveiled:

If 75% of the managers in poorly performing organizations believe their projects are being delivered successfully, they have no reason to invest in improving project delivery capability. Outsiders may see project failure and know how to improve the organization’s systems to prevent future failures, but the majority of the managers in the organization cannot see, or will not see, there is a problem that needs fixing.  The answer to Cobb’s paradox: ‘We know why projects fail, we know how to prevent their failure — so why do they still fail?’ is the responsible managers do not perceive their projects as failing and therefore will not invest in solving a problem they cannot, or will not, acknowledge. Changing this flawed perception is a major governance challenge.  

Download Do 80% of organizations average a project failure rate of 80%?

For more papers on project governance see: https://mosaicprojects.com.au/PMKI-ORG-005.php#PPP-Success

Note: This post has been updated and augmented, for the latest version see: Do 80% of organizations average a project failure rate of 80%?

This post is not intended to provide precise numbers, rather to highlight an intriguing anomaly that could benefit from some structured research.  Over many years, and many different reports, based on different survey methods, we regularly see the following data presented:

1. Far more projects fail than succeed, the ratio is typically around 30% success 70% fail.
    
2. There are some organizations that routinely achieve project success, these are slowly increasing as an overall percentage and currently sit at around 20% of the organizations that ‘do projects’.
   
   
3. The vast majority of executives surveyed think their organization manages its projects successfully.  The percentage of executive with this view seems to sit comfortably above 80%.

But, unless there is a major distortion in one or more of the data sets, these data are mutually incompatible!

If 20% of organizations that ‘do projects’ get most of their projects delivered successfully, it means this group have to account for at least half of the 30% of successes, which pushes the ratio of fails for the rest of the organizations to 15:65 = 19% success vs 81% fails.

In round numbers 80% of the organizations doing projects, have a failure rate of around 80%.

But if more than 80% of executives feel their organizations deliver projects successfully this data suggests that some 60% of these executives are seriously misinformed. So, my question is why do some 75% of executives in the 80% of organizations that routinely fail to deliver projects successfully appear to believe the opposite?  The answer to this question probably sits in the complex area of communication failures caused by organizational culture and governance issues, for more on this see: https://mosaicprojects.com.au/PMKI-ORG.php

This assessment also helps explain why so many organizations simply do not invest in systems to improve project delivery. There is no point in spending money to fix a problem the executives cannot acknowledge. So whereto from here??

The answer will not be easy. To quote from the 2018 PMI Pulse of the profession survey: “There is a powerful connection between effective project management and financial performance. Organizations that are ineffective with project management waste 21 times more money than those with the highest performing project management capabilities. But the good news is that by leveraging some proven practices, there is huge potential for organizations to course correct and enhance financial performance.”  But it appears that while the people setting their organizations strategy, culture and governance systems may be aware of this, a large percentage do not believe it applies to them – their projects are managed appropriately, even if 80% of them fail. 

Changing the culture to implement effective project governance and controls needs executive support! For more on the strategic management of projects and programs see: https://mosaicprojects.com.au/PMKI-ORG-015.php#Process1

Notes:

1. First, I am fully aware of the ‘Flaw of Averages’, and the resulting problems in the way the calculations in this post have been made. But in the absence of an integrated data set for proper statistical analysis, I believe the trends highlighted above are valid indicators of a problem. What is needed to test these indicators is a proper survey that contrasts executive opinions against project success rates across a large sample of organizations.
   
   
2. The second issue is the sample of executives surveyed. Most of the data I have seen comes from ‘opt-in’ surveys which is likely to bias the sample towards executives that consider projects important.

Our latest article, CSR, TBL, and Too Many Other Acronyms looks at the relationship between ESG, CSR, TBL and a range of other concepts that relate to the need for organizations to act in ways that are socially and environmentally sustainable.

The concepts are good for everyone and central to good governance, but does the alphabet soup of acronyms that are appearing help or hinder the achievement of good governance outcomes?

Download CSR, TBL, and Too Many Other Acronyms : https://mosaicprojects.com.au/Mag_Articles/AA029_CSR_TBL_+_Too_Many_Other_Acronyms.pdf

For more on sustainability see: https://mosaicprojects.com.au/PMKI-TPI-005.php#Process3  

Project Managers 4 The World, Charity Event on April 27 & 28, 2022: 24 hours talk around the clock in support of children and families from Ukraine is over.  The event was a great success thanks to Patric Eid, Oliver F. Lehmann, and a panel of 24 speakers from around the world:  https://charity-conference.com/speaker-list-april-27-2022/

I am proud to have been a part of this unique, 100% volunteer event.

My presentation was: Governing and Leading Projects using Earned Value Management (EVM). Good management and good governance require good information. When implemented effectively EVM is a robust, practical system focused on assessing and supporting the managers of a project. Based on the framework in ISO 21508, this presentation will provide an overview of the 11 steps needed to implement EVM effectively.

The presentation (PDF) can be downloaded from: https://mosaicprojects.com.au/PMKI-SCH-040.php#Overview

There’s no fee or registration to download the paper, but please take a minute and donate to UNICEF’s work with children in Ukraine:  https://www.unicef.org/emergencies/war-ukraine-pose-immediate-threat-children

A brief article at: https://mosaicprojects.com.au/Mag_Articles/P044-Technical_Debt.pdf

My presentation from ProjectChat 2019 at: https://mosaicprojects.com.au/PDF_Papers/P204-Technical_Debt.pdf

The objective of this post is to:

• Put all (or most) of the different mechanisms used by organisations to engage with stakeholders into perspective; and
• Emphasise the message that authentic and effective stakeholder/community engagement needs an organisation-wide coordinated approach that is governed from the very top levels of management.

The Stakeholder Engagement Spectrum

The Organisational Core

The characteristics of the organisation are always at the centre of every stakeholder relationship[1]. The way your organisation is structured, its ethics, characteristics, systems, and services, underpin how its stakeholder community will ultimately perceive the business. The key to successful stakeholder engagement is in part the way the organisation is structured and operated, and in part being authentic and realistic in the way various aspects of stakeholder communication and engagement are used. If your business is a low-cost, low service, bulk supplier don’t pretend to be an upmarket high service organisation. Many people are more than happy to shop at retail outlets such as Walmart and Aldi, attracted by price and simplicity; others prefer the higher levels of service and higher prices from more upmarket department stores. The art of stakeholder engagement is to maximise the appeal and perceptions of the organisation as it is – not to mask reality with a pretence of being something else.

However, poorly governed unethical organisations will always ultimately fail regardless of their stakeholder engagement effort; you can’t build an effective long-term relationship on unsound foundations.

Similarly, any organisation can implement these eight practices and still ignore their stakeholder community – engagement is a two-way communication process that includes listening to and understanding stakeholder’s wants, needs, issues and concerns (particularly related to the perceived or actual impact of organisational activities) allow the development of effective stakeholder relationships. Effective engagement is only possible if the organisation’s overall culture and ethical-frame is a stakeholder-centric one. This is one of the reason’s why creating the ethics and culture feature prominently in my ‘Six functions of governance‘ model.

The 8 Aspects of the Stakeholder Engagement Spectrum

The eight aspects of stakeholder engagement highlighted above are all well defined in various publications; the way they are used in this post is briefly set out below:

PR: Public Relations – The actions taken by an organisation to develop and maintain a favourable public image. PR is a strategic communication process that builds mutually beneficial relationships between the organisation and its stakeholders. The core element of PR is push communication; it is a proactive process controlled by the organisation, broadcasting information to a wide community to influence attitudes.

Advertising – The activity production and placing of advertisements for products or services. The purpose of each advertisement is to announce or praise a product (goods, service, concept, etc.) in some public medium of communication in order to induce people to buy, use it, or take some other action desired by the advertiser. The difference between PR and Advertising is that PR largely focuses on creating or influencing attitudes and perceptions whereas advertising focuses on some form of ‘call to action’.

CRM: Customer Relationship Management – Refers to the practices, strategies and technologies that organisations use to manage and analyse customer interactions and customer data throughout the customer lifecycle. The goal of CSR is to improve the organisation’s relationship with each customer, assisting in customer retention, and driving sales growth. Good CRM systems make it easy for people to do business with you.

Issues Management[2] – The process of identifying and resolving issues. Effective issues management needs a pre-planned process for dealing with unexpected occurrences that will negatively impact the organisation if they are not resolved. The scope of this concept ranges from ‘crisis management’ where the magnitude of the issue could destroy the organisation (and the most senior management take an active role) through to empowering staff to deal with relatively minor customer complaints. The key to effective issue management is resolving the issue to the satisfaction of the affected stakeholders. This requires effective systems and preplanning – you don’t know what the next issue will be, but you can be sure there will be one.

Stakeholder Management Initiatives[3] – this is the area where most of my work is focused; managing the expectations of, and relationships with, the stakeholder community surrounding an organisational activity, initiative, or project. Most business initiatives and projects have a high potential to affect a range of stakeholders both positively and negatively (and frequently both at different times). How these relationships are managed affects not only the ability of the organisation to deliver its initiative or project successfully but also the overall perception of the organisation in the minds of the wider stakeholder community.

Business Intelligence & Environment Scanning – BI and other forms of environmental scanning looking at attitudes, trends, behaviours, and other factors in the wider stakeholder community. They are a key emerging element in the overall approach to stakeholder engagement used by proactive organisations. This is very much the space of ‘big data’ and data mining. Much of the collection of data can be automated and ‘hidden’ from view. The challenge is making sure the information collected is legal (privacy legislation is an important consideration), accurate, relevant, and complete; then asking the ‘right questions’ using various data mining tools. As with any intelligence gathering process, obtaining the data is the easy part of the equation; the real skill lies in developing, validating and interpreting the data to create information that can be used to produce valuable insights.

Social Networks – The ubiquitous, widespread, and diverse nature of social networks ranging from Facebook to personal interaction down the pub can easily outweigh all of the organisation’s efforts to create a positive image using PR, advertising and the other ‘controlled’ functions discussed above.  The organisation’s staff and its immediate stakeholders literally have millions of connections and interconnections to other stakeholders. Most of these connections are unseen, and the environment cannot be controlled. The best any organisation can hope to achieve in this relatively new communication environment is to plant seeds and seek to have some influence. Seeding ideas and concepts into the ‘Twittersphere’ may result in a concept being taken up and ‘going viral’, more commonly the seed simply fails to germinate. Conversely identifying negative trends and issues early, particularly if they are false, is critically important and where possible these negative influences should be countered but given the nature of the environment this is a very difficult feat to achieve.  Smart organisations recognise that their staff, customers, contractors, and suppliers all engage in this space and through other effective communication channels can influence how these people respond to opportunities and issues affecting the organisation.

CSR: Corporate Social Responsibility[4] – CSR completes the circle and brings it back towards the concept of PR.  CSR contributes to sustainable development by delivering economic, social and environmental benefits for all stakeholders. ISO 26000  Guidance Standard on Social Responsibility, defines social responsibility (ie, CSR) as follows:

Social responsibility is the responsibility of an organisation for the impacts of its decisions and activities on society and the environment, through transparent and ethical behaviour that:
–  Contributes to sustainable development, including the health and the welfare of society
–  Takes into account the expectations of stakeholders
–  Is in compliance with applicable law and consistent with international norms of behaviour, and
–  Is integrated throughout the organization and practised in its relationships.

The key difference between CSR and PR is that CSR actually involves doing things both within the organisation and within the wider community, whereas PR focuses on telling people things.

Applying the Stakeholder Engagement Spectrum

The various aspects of stakeholder engagement spectrum combined together to create the organisation’s reputation, engage communities, build customers, and when necessary protect the organisation’s reputation. The key combinations are set out below:

Reputation Creation: The key components needed to create and maintain a desirable reputation start with CSR and work clockwise through the spectrum to CRM.

Community Engagement: The key components needed to effectively engage the wider community are focused on CSR but includes the elements moving anti-clockwise from CSR through to Issues Management.

Building Customers: The elements needed to build and retain customers start with PR and work clockwise through the spectrum to Issues Management.

Protecting Your Reputation: Finally, when something goes wrong, protecting or restoring the organisation’s reputation is focused around Issues Management, but includes elements of CRM and continues clockwise through to Environment Scanning. In addition, many of the ‘push’ elements in the spectrum may be used as tools to help manage issues and protect the reputation of the organisation including PR and advertising.

Conclusion

The ‘stakeholder engagement spectrum’ above is deliberately drawn in a circle surrounding the organisational core, because all of the different aspects interrelate, many overlap, and they all build on each other.  The governance challenge facing many organisations is breaking down the traditional barriers between functional areas such as advertising, PR and CRM/sales, so that the entire organisation’s approach to its stakeholders is coordinated, authentic and effective.

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[1] See more on Ed Freeman’ stakeholder theory at: /2014/07/11/understanding-stakeholder-theory/

[2] For more on issues management see: https://mosaicprojects.com.au/WhitePapers/WP1089_Issues_Management.pdf

[3] For more on stakeholder management see: https://mosaicprojects.com.au/Stakeholder_Circle.html

[4] For more on CSR see: /tag/corporate-social-responsibility/

As outlined above, from the emergence of ‘modern project management’ in the 1960s[2] the predominant view of the professional associations and most academics and practitioners has been that ‘project management’ is a single discipline with transferrable skills. A single qualification framework is appropriate and the skills and techniques are generally applicable across all industries.  However, in the years between the 1960s and the 2000s, as different industries and disciplines progressively adopted the concept of ‘project management’ this holistic view has become increasingly stressed.

The future suggested in this post still sees project management as a single discipline focused around some high-level objectives; but rather than having a single set of generally accepted good practices applicable to most projects most time, the emerging discipline needs to be capable of embracing a range of different approaches to project management and a diverse toolbox of techniques that can be mixed and matched to optimise the creation of the project’s deliverables.

Project management literature has identified at least three key dimensions to project management:

1. An ‘adaptive/agile’ approach -v- a disciplined structured approach.
2. The size, scale, and difficulty associated with the work of the project.
3. Simple relatively predictable projects -v- complex projects with emergent properties.

In addition to these parameters (mapped in the diagram above), there is also the degree of certainty associated with the work, the technical complexity of the product, and the attitude of the stakeholder community[3].

It’s time for a change.

The project management techniques needed to manage different types of project vary enormously; for example:

• The optimum approach to managing a relatively small, simple project to upgrade a website may benefit from an adaptive/Agile approach to managing the work and should only require a ‘light touch’ to control the work;
• Contrast this to the disciplined approach needed to design and build a new chemical plant where not only do complicated parts need to be manufactured to precise dimensions months in advance and shipped halfway around the world, but the work has to be carefully managed and the parts assembled in a precise sequence to allow all bits to be fitted together properly in a safe working environment.

Both these endeavours are projects, but the project management techniques needed for success are dramatically different. Even within the one project, some elements may benefit from an ‘agile’ approach to the work (eg, systems integration), while other elements of the work will require a very disciplined approach to achieve success – building space rockets really does require ‘rocket science’.

The challenge facing the project management profession and project management academics is first defining the common core of project management, and then adapting the approach to developing and documenting the overall project management body of knowledge in a way that recognises the core commonality of being ‘a project’ whilst allowing different approaches to the management of the work. And once these foundations are in place, flowing these concepts through into documented standards, knowledge frameworks and certifications. In the 21^st century a ‘one size fits all’ approach to the management of projects is no longer appropriate.

PMI has started down this path, they have agile certifications and have included both tailorability and agile concepts into the 6^th edition of the PMBOK® Guide. Developments in the ISO space are also moving towards this integrated but separated approach to managing different types of projects. ISO 21500 Guidance on Project Management, is being updated and transformed into a higher level ‘management standard’, if this development is successful, in the future a series of implementation guides can be foreseen focused on different types, sizes and phases of project development and delivery.

What’s missing at the moment is a holistic and agreed understanding precisely what a project actually is[4] (this will segregate project management from other forms of management), and then a framework for distinguishing the different types of project that exist within the overall frame of being ‘a project’, but requiring different styles of project management. Some of the multitude of factors that need to be considered include:

• The inherent size of the project usually measured in terms of value;
• The degree of technical difficulty in creating the output (complication) caused by the characteristics of the project’s work and its deliverables, or the time-frame the deliverables are required within;
• The degree of uncertainty involved in the project;
• The degree of complexity associated with the work and the stakeholder relationships;
• The difference between client project management and contractor project management;
• The various methodologies and strategic approaches to managing the project and developing the product (Agile, PRINCE2, etc);
• The maturity of the environment in which the project is being delivered (developing economies/organisations -v- mature economies/organisations); and
• The difference between project, program and portfolio management.

The common core

The core element of all projects is the intentional ‘temporariness’ of the team (organisation) set up to deliver the project. The ‘temporary organisation’ is given an objective to create a deliverable for a client and then to shut down efficiently; in addition, there is an intention on the part of most key stakeholders to treat the work as a ‘project’. This means the project has to be started (initiated), the work planned, then undertaken, and on completion the temporary organisation has to be closed – and of course, all of these activities need monitoring and controlling.

Where 21^st century project management needs to diverge from the doctrines of the last century is in the way these overarching objectives are achieved – defining 44 or 49 processes as ‘generally accepted best practices’ is no longer appropriate.  The concept of ‘project management’ needs to be able to adapt to very different approaches, allow the project team to select from a toolbox of ‘useful techniques and methodologies’ and then encourage the teams to craft the processes they actually use to optimise the delivery of the project’s outputs to its clients.

Achieving this will require a different approach to developing standards, a different approach to training and qualifying practitioners and the creation of very different communities within the profession that encourages cohesion whilst embracing diversity of practice.

It will be interesting to see if our profession is up to the challenges.

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[1] PMBOK® Guide 6^th Edition available in Australia: https://mosaicprojects.com.au/shop-pmbok-guide-6th-ed.php

[2] For more on the origins of ‘modern project management’ see: http://www.mosaicprojects.com.au/PDF_Papers/P050_Origins_of_Modern_PM.pdf

[3] For more on the dimensions of project management see: http://www.mosaicprojects.com.au/WhitePapers/WP1072_Project_Size.pdf

[4] For more on defining a project see: /2016/08/11/seeking-a-definition-of-a-project/

In July 1969, Sherry R. Arnstein published ‘A Ladder of Citizen Participation’ the A.I.P Journal[1] looking at citizen participation and the consequential citizen power over a range of USA government initiatives designed to enhance the lives of disadvantaged people in US cities. The typology of participation proposed by Arnstein can be transposed to the modern era to offer a framework for discussing how engaged in your project, or program, your stakeholders should be in actively contributing to the management and governance of the work they are supposed to benefit from.

Modern paradigms such as ‘the wisdom of crowds’, ‘user participation in Agile teams’ and ‘stakeholder theory’ all lean strongly towards stakeholder ownership of the initiative designed to benefit them. These views are contrasted by concepts such as technical competence, intellectual property rights, confidentiality and the ‘iron triangle’ of commercial reality (often backed up by contractual constraints).

The debate about how much control your stakeholders should have over the work, and how engaged they should be in the work, is for another place and time – there is probably no ‘universally correct’ answer to these questions. But it is difficult to even start discussing these questions if you don’t have a meaningful measure to compare options against.

Arnstein’s paper is founded on the proposition that meaningful ‘citizen participation’ is ‘citizen power’ but also recognises there is a critical difference between going through empty rituals of participation and having real power to affect the outcome of a process. This poster was from the May 1968 student uprising in Paris, for those of us who can’t remember French verbs, translated it says:  I participate; you participate; he participates; we participate; you (plural) participate; …… they profit.   The difference between citizen participation in matters of community improvement and stakeholder participation in a project is that whilst civil participation probably should mean civil control,  this same clear delineation does not apply to stakeholder engagement in projects.  The decision to involve stakeholders in a project or program is very much open to interpretation as to the best level of involvement or engagement.  However, the ladder of engagement proposed by Arnstein can easily be adapted to the requirement of providing a framework to use when discussing what is an appropriate degree of involvement of stakeholders in your project or program.

There are eight rungs in Arnstein’s ladder; starting from the bottom:

1. Manipulation: stakeholders are placed on rubberstamp advisory committees or invited to participate in surveys, provide feedback, or are given other activities to perform which create an illusion of engagement but nobody takes very much notice of the information provided.   The purpose of this type of engagement is primarily focused on making the stakeholders feel engaged rather than using the engagement to influence decisions and outcomes. The benefits can be reduced stakeholder opposition, at least in the short term, but there is very little real value created to enhance the overall outcomes of the project.
2. Therapy: this level of stakeholder engagement involves engaging stakeholders in extensive activities related to the project but with a view to changing the stakeholder’s view of the work whilst minimising their actual ability to create change. Helping the stakeholders adjust to the values of the project may not be the best solution in the longer term but every organisational change management guideline (including our White Paper) advocates this type of engagement to sell the benefits the project or program has been created to deliver.
3. Informing: informing stakeholders of their rights, responsibilities, and/or options, can be the first step towards effective stakeholder participation in the project and its outcomes. However too frequently the emphasis is placed on a one-way flow of information from the project to the stakeholders. Particularly when this information is provided at a late stage, stakeholders have little opportunity to contribute to the project that is supposed to be delivering benefits for them. Distributing information is a key stakeholder engagement activity (see the Three Types of Stakeholder Communication) but there have to be mechanisms for effective feedback for this process to maximise its potential value.
4. Consultation: inviting stakeholder’s opinions, like informing them, can be a legitimate step towards their full participation. But if the consultation is not combined with other modes of participation this rung of the ladder is still a sham, it offers no assurance that the stakeholder concerns and ideas will be taken into account. Effective participation includes providing stakeholders with a degree of control over the consultation processes as well as full insight as to how their inputs are considered and used. In the long run window dressing participation helps no one.
5. Placation: at this level stakeholders have some degree of influence although tokenism is still potentially involved. Simply including stakeholders in processes such as focus groups or oversight committees where they do not have power, or are trained not to exercise power, gives the appearance of stakeholder engagement without any of the benefits.
6. Partnership: at this level power is genuinely redistributed and the stakeholders work with the project team to achieve an outcome that is beneficial to all. Power-sharing may seem risky all but if the right stakeholders with a genuine interest in the outcome are encouraged to work with the technical delivery team to constructively enhance the project’s outcomes (which is implicit in a partnership) everyone potentially benefits.
7. Delegated power: In many aspects of projects and programs, particularly those associated with implementation, rollout, and/or organisational change, delegating management authority to key stakeholder groups has the potential to significantly improve outcomes. These groups do need support, training, and governance, but concepts such as self-managed work teams demonstrate the value of the model.
8. Stakeholder control: In one respect stakeholders do control projects and programs but this group tends to be a small management elite fulfilling roles such as sponsors, steering committees, etc. Genuine stakeholder control expands this narrow group to include many more affected stakeholders. Particularly social projects, where the purpose of the project is to benefit stakeholders, can demonstratively be improved by involving the people project disposed to help. But even technical projects can benefit from the wisdom of crowds[2].

In summary, the framework looks like this:

The biggest difference between the scenario discussed in the original paper and stakeholder engagement around projects and programs is the fact that different stakeholders very often need quite different engagement approaches to optimise project outcomes. Arnstein’s 1969 paper argued in favour of citizen participation as a single entity and the benefits progressing up the ladder towards its control. In a project situation, it is probably more sensible to look at different groups of stakeholders and then assess where on the ladder you would like to see that group functioning. Some groups may only need relatively low levels of information to be adequately managed. Others may well contribute best in positions of control or at least where their advice is actively sought and used.

Do you think this framework is helpful in advancing conversations around stakeholder engagement in your project?

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[1] Arnstein, S.R.  AIP Journal July 1969 pp:216 – 223.  A Ladder of Citizen Participation.

[2] The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many Are Smarter Than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economies, Societies and Nations, published in 2004, is a book written by James Surowiecki about the aggregation of information in groups, resulting in decisions that, he argues, are often better than could have been made by any single member of the group.

Within this governance framework, getting the ethics and culture of an organisation right comes before anything else – it has far more to do with people, and culture than it does with process and policing! But crafting or changing culture and the resultant behaviours is far from easy and requires a carefully crafted long term strategy supported from the very top of the organisation. The journey is difficult, but achievable, and can pay major dividends to the organisation concerned. One interesting example of this approach in practice is the implementation of effective major project management by the UK government.

The problems with megaprojects[1]

The challenges and issues associated with megaprojects are well known, we recently posted on one aspect of this in the reference case for management reserves. The source materials used in this post clearly show that UK government has been acutely aware of the issues for many years as does any review of the UK National Audit Office’s reports into failed government projects.  At the 2022 PGCS symposium in Canberra, Geraldine Barker, from the UK NAO offered an independent and authoritative overview of the UK perspective and experience from her review of the Major Projects Authority, on the approaches, challenges, and lessons to be learned in improving the performance of major projects at individual and portfolio levels. While there were still major issues, there had also been a number of welcome developments to address the issues including:

• Improvements to accountability with greater clarity about the roles of senior responsible owners;
• Investment by the Authority and departments to improve the capability of staff to deliver major projects, with departments reporting to us that they are seeing benefits from these initiatives;
• Increased assurance and recognition of the role that assurance plays in improving project delivery; and
• Initiatives to prevent departments from getting locked into solutions too early.

Amyas Morse, head of the National Audit Office, said in a report to the UK Parliament on 6 January 2016, “I acknowledge that a number of positive steps have been taken by the Authority and client departments. At the same time, I am concerned that a third of projects monitored by the Authority are red or amber-red and the overall picture of progress on project performance is opaque. More effort is needed if the success rate of project delivery is to improve”[2].

The major challenges identified in that report were to:

• Prevent departments making firm commitments on cost and timescales for delivery before their plans have been properly tested;
• Develop an effective mechanism whereby all major projects are prioritised according to strategic importance and capability is deployed to priority areas; and
• Put in place the systems and data which allow proper performance measurement.

The latest report from the Infrastructure and Projects Authority – IPA (formally the Major Projects Authority) has allowed the UK government to claim an improvement in its delivery of major projects, with the number of those at risk reducing from 44 to 38 in the past year.

The report says that there are 143 major projects on the Government Major Projects Portfolio (GMPP), worth £455.5bn and spread across 17 government departments.

The data shows a steady improvement in the way that government is delivering major projects:

• More than 60% of projects by whole-life cost are likely to be successfully delivered;
• Since last year’s report, the number of at risk projects has reduced from 44 to 38, which continues to be an improvement from 48 the previous year;

The data shows signs of steady improvement in the way government is delivering major projects. The question is how was this achieved?

The answer is ‘slowly’ looking from the outside there seem to be three parallel processes working together to change the culture of the UK civil service:

• The first is making project management ‘attractive’ to senior executives. Since 2000 the government has been working to develop the internal skills needed to allow the deployment of capable ‘Senior Responsible Owners’ (SRO) on all of its major projects including establishing a well-respected course for SROs. The Major Projects Leadership Academy was developed in 2012 (first graduates 2013) and is run in partnership with the Saïd Oxford Business School and Deloitte. The academy builds the skills of senior project leaders across government, making it easier to carry out complex projects effectively. In the future, no one will be able to lead a major government project without completing the academy programme.
• The second has been making the performance of its major projects public. This includes an on-going challenge to acquire realistic and meaningful data on performance (still a challenge) and is most obvious in the annual report from the Major Projects Authority. Their fifth report is now available for downloading.
• Finally skills development and robust challenges are put to departments to ensure adequate front end planning is completed before government funds are committed to a project.

This process is not quick and given the risky nature of major projects will never deliver a 100% success rate, but the steady change in attitudes and performance in the UK clearly show that ‘good governance’ backed by a sound multi-faceted strategy focused on the stakeholders engaged in the work will pay dividends. Proponents advocating for this type of improvement have many challenges to deal with, not the least of which is the fact that as data quality improves, the number of problems that will be visible increase – add the glare of publicity and this can be politically embarrassing!  However, as the UK reports show, persistence pays off.

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[1] For a definition of megaprojects see: /2017/06/09/differentiating-normal-complex-and-megaprojects/

[2] See: https://www.nao.org.uk/report/delivering-major-projects-in-government-a-briefing-for-the-committee-of-public-accounts/

As a starting point, there seems to be a generally accepted view that the competencies needed to be a successful project manager underpin all of the other concepts. There are some distinctly different techniques used in Agile, only some of which flow into traditional project management, but in other respects ‘agile’ and ‘good project management’ are very closely aligned.  Managing complexity requires a significant additional set of competencies that build onto the traditional requirements.  Then, whilst many complex projects do not meet the definition of a ‘megaproject’, every megaproject is by definition a complex project with an additional layer of management capabilities needed to deal with its impact on society.  This basic framework is outlined below:

Stakeholders

All forms of project management recognise the importance of the project stakeholders. Projects are done by people for people and the ultimate success or failure of a project is defined by people – all ‘stakeholders’.  My work on the PMBOK® Guide 6^th Edition core team was very much focused on enhancing the sections on stakeholder engagement and communication (which is the primary tool for engaging stakeholders). And as the scale of projects increase, the number of stakeholders and the intensity of public focus increases dramatically.

A heuristic suggested by Prof. Bent Flyvbjerg is as a general rule of thumb: ‘megaprojects’ are measured in billions of dollars, ‘major projects’ in hundreds of millions, and ‘projects’ in tens of millions or less. To quote the late Spike Milligan, ‘Money can’t buy you friends but you do get a better class of enemy’ – and while many stakeholders may not be ‘enemies’, the ability of stakeholders to organise around a megaproject tends to be far greater than around a small internal project. Consequently, the focus on stakeholders should increase significantly in excess of the increment in cost as you flow from small to megaprojects.

However, regardless of size, the need to identify, engage, manage, and deliver value to stakeholders, through the realisation of beneficial change, is consistent through all of the concepts discussed below. This and the temporariness of each ‘project organisation (ie, team)’ are the two consistent factors that underpin the concept of project management; and ‘temporariness’ is the key factor that separates projects and programs from other forms of management and ‘business as usual’.

Traditional Project Management.

The recognised guide for traditional project management is the PMBOK® Guide augmented to a degree by ISO 21500. The publicly released information on the 6^th Edition highlights the need for flexibility in applying its processes, including the requirement to actively consider ‘tailoring processes’ to meet project requirements, and the value agile thinking can bring to the overall management of projects (see below).

The frame of traditional project management starts once the project is defined and finishes once the project has delivered is objectives. While this scope is somewhat limited and there may be a need to expand the scope of project management to include project definition at the ‘front end’, and benefits realisation and value creation after the outputs have been delivered (this will be the subject of another post), the knowledge, skills and competencies required to manage this type of project management are well understood.

Each project has four basic dimensions, size (usually measured in $), technical difficulty, uncertainty and complexity (these are discussed in detail in: Project Size and Categorisation). In the right circumstances, Agile can be an effective approach to resolving uncertainty. However, at an undefined point, the increase in complexity reaches a point where the concept of ‘complex project management’ becomes significant and really large projects are the realm of ‘megaproject management’. But the underpinning capabilities required to manage all of these extensions remains the conventional project management skills.

Agile Project Management

Agile has many facets. The concepts contained in the Agile Manifesto basically reflect a shift away for a ridged focus on process towards a focus on people (stakeholders) and adapting to change to achieve a successful outcome.  These concepts are now firmly embedded in the PMBOK® Guide 6^th Edition and apply to every project. Where agile projects separate from traditional projects is recognising that in a range of soft projects, including software development, taking an iterative and adaptive approach to understanding the scope can often achieve a better outcome. Understanding what is actually helpful to the client develops based on learned experience from earlier iterations and these needs are incorporated into the next iteration of the development allowing a better outcome to be delivered to the client. This is not significantly different to much older concepts such as ‘rolling wave planning’ and progressive elaboration – there really is little point in making detailed plans for work you don’t know much about. The difference is Agile actively expects the scope to be adapted to the emerging requirements of the client, the other approaches seek to add detail to the plans at an appropriate point in time whilst the overall scope remains fundamentally unchanged.

Agile does not even need a project to be useful. Many of the Agile techniques work in any situation where there is a backlog of work to get through and can be effectively used outside of the concept of a ‘project’, this particularly applies to routine maintenance work of almost any kind.  A discussion on the value of Agile, and its limitations, are contained in our paper Thoughts on Agile.

However, for the purposes of this post, the key aspects Agile brings to the discussion, that are essential for effectively managing most types of project, are contained in the Manifesto – a preference for:

• Individuals and interactions over processes and tools.
• Customer collaboration over contract negotiation.
• Responding to change over following a plan.

The Manifesto recognises there is value in the items on the right, but values the items on the left more.

Complex Project Management

Complexity is a facet of every project and program. Complex project management skills become important at the point where complexity becomes a significant inhibitor affecting the delivery of a successful outcome from the project (or program). This point may occur well before ‘complexity’ becomes the defining feature of the project.

Complexity is a very different concept to a complicated project, technically complicated work can be predicted and managed; launching a new communication satellite is ‘rocket science’, but there are highly skilled rocket scientists available that undertake this type of work on a routine basis. As with any traditional project, the costs, resources and time required can be predicted reasonably accurately.

The dominant feature of complexity is the non-predictability of outcomes. Non-linearity, ‘the tipping point’, and emergence describe different ways outcomes from a slightly different starting point can vary significantly compared to previous experience or expectations (for more on the concepts of complexity see: Complexity Theory).  Complexity arises from various forms of complex system, these may be organic (eg, a river’s eco-system), man-made (eg, an overly complicated system-of-systems such as too many interconnected software applications automatically interacting with each other), or interpersonal (eg, the web of relationships within and between a project team and its surrounding stakeholder community).  In all of these situations, the ‘system’ behaves relatively predictably, dealing with the effects of stresses and stimuli up to a point (and normal management approaches work satisfactorily); but after that point adding or changing the situation by a small increment creates completely unexpected consequences.

Interestingly, from the perspective of managing a project, these three areas of complexity are closely interlinked, the complex behaviour of the environment and/or man-made systems-of-systems feeds back into the perceptions of stakeholders and the activity of stakeholders can impact on both the environment, and the way complex systems function. Similarly, dealing with emerging anomalies in the environment or in a complex system needs the active cooperation of at least some of the project’s stakeholders. Consequently, the focus of complex project management is dealing with the consequences of the inherently unpredictable and complex behaviours and attitudes of stakeholders, both within the team and within the surrounding stakeholder community.

Some projects and programs, particularly large ones, are obviously complex from the outset and can be set up to make effective use of the ideas embedded in complex project management. Others may be perceived as non-complex ‘business-as-usual’ and tip into complexity as a result of some unforeseen factor such as a ‘normal accident[1]’ occurring or simply because the perception of ‘straightforward’ was ill-founded. Underestimating complexity is a significant risk.

Where the project is perceived to be complex from the outset, a management team with the competencies required to deal with the nuances of managing a ‘complex project’ can be appointed from day one (and if appropriately skilled people are not available, support and training can be provided to overcome the deficiencies) – this maximises the probability of a successful outcome.  When a project unexpectedly falls into a state of complexity the situation is far more difficult to manage primarily because the people managing the work are unlikely to be skilled in complex project management, will try to use normal management techniques and most organisations lack the resources needed to help rectify the situation – skilled complex project managers are in short supply globally.

One initiative designed to overcome this shortage of ‘complex project managers’ and build an understanding of ‘complex project management’ is the International Centre for Complex Project Management (ICCPM).  ICCPM’s approach to complex project management is to see this capability as an extension of traditional project management (as inferred in the diagram above). The ICCPM view is that while traditional approaches are insufficient to effectively manage a complex project on their own, you cannot manage a complex project without a strong foundation based on these traditional skills and processes. The relationship is described by the ICCPM as:

What changes is in part the way the traditional capabilities such as scheduling and budgeting are used, overlaid with the expectation these artifacts will need to adjust and change as the situation around the project changes, augmented with a range of ‘special attributes’ particular to the process of managing a complex project. These ‘special attributes’ are valuable in the management of any project but become essential in the management of complex projects.  These capabilities and competencies are defined in the ICCPM’s Complex Project Manager Competency Standard available from: https://iccpm.com/.

Complex projects can vary in size from relatively small undertakings involving factors such as updating a complex systems-of-systems, or a high level of political sensitivity, through to the megaprojects discussed below. A complex project may not be a megaproject or even a major project, but every megaproject and many major projects will also be a complex project requiring complex project management capabilities for a successful outcome.

Megaproject Management

Megaprojects are defined as temporary endeavours (i.e. projects or programs) characterised by:

• A large investment commitment;
• Vast complexity (especially in organizational terms); and
• A long-lasting impact on the economy (of a country or region), the environment, and society.

They are initiatives that are physical, very expensive, and public. By definition, megaprojects are complex endeavours requiring a high degree of capability in the management of complex projects.  In addition megaprojects typically involve a number of other facets:

• Megaprojects are by definition a program of work (see: Defining Program Types).
• Many are implemented under government legislation, requiring skills and knowledge of government processes and the ability to operate within the ambit of ‘government’. This is a very different space in terms of accountability and transparency compared to private enterprise.
• Most interact with a range of government agencies at all levels of government from local to national. These stakeholders often have a very different set of agendas and success criteria compared to the organisation running the megaproject.
• The size of a typical megaproject involves large amounts of money and therefore increases the risk of corruption and other malfeasance – governance and controls need to be robust[2] to maintain high ethical standards.
• The ‘political attractiveness’ of doing a megaproject (eg, hosting the Olympics) distorts decision making; care in the megaproject development process is required to reduce the effect of optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation (see: The reference case for management reserves).
• Megaprojects are financially fragile[3] and fragility is typically irreversible. Once broken the fragile entity cannot be readily restored to its original function. Financial (or investment) fragility is defined as the vulnerability of a financial investment to becoming non-viable, i.e., losing its ability to create net economic value. For example, the cost risks for big dams are significant; the actual costs more than doubles the original estimate for 2 out of 10 dams; triples for 1 out of every 10 big dams. But managers do not seem to learn; forecasts today are likely to be as wrong as they were between 1934 and 2007.

Recognising the scope and complexity of managing a megaproject and training people appropriately can mitigate the risks, the UK experience around Terminal 5 and Cross Rail (both £4 billion projects) suggest that achieving a good outcome is viable provided the organisation commissioning the megaproject is prepared to invest in its management. It’s probably no coincidence the management of megaprojects and their associated risk has been the focus of the Saïd Business School, University of Oxford for many years.

Summary

The competencies needed to manage projects grows in line with the increase in complexity and the increase in size. There are definitely additional elements of competency needed at each step in the framework outlined above.  What is far less clear is how to demarcate between normal, complex and megaprojects! Every project has a degree of complexity and a degree of size.  The values suggested above to separate normal, major and mega projects are arbitrary and there is even less clarity as to the transition between normal and complex projects.

I suspect the domain map demarcating the different disciplines will end up looking something like this but there’s a lot of research needed to define the boundaries and assign values to the axis (especially in terms of measuring the degree of complexity).  Hopefully, this blog will serve to start the discussion.

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[1] Normal accidents are system accidents that are inevitable in extremely complex systems. The three
conditions that make a system likely to be susceptible to Normal Accidents are:
–  The system is complex
–  The system is tightly coupled
–  The system has catastrophic potential
The characteristic of the system leads to multiple failures which interact with each other, despite efforts to avoid them.

[2] For more on governance and ethics see: http://www.mosaicprojects.com.au/PM-Knowledge_Index.html#OrgGov1

[3] From: Big Is Fragile: An Attempt at Theorizing Scale, in Bent Flyvbjerg, ed., The Oxford Handbook of Megaproject Management (Oxford: Oxford University Press)