Comments on: The illusion of control: dancing with chance/2010/03/26/the-illusion-of-control-dancing-with-chance/Project and stakeholder management topicsTue, 29 Mar 2011 00:33:47 +0000hourly1http://wordpress.com/By: My weekly contribution to Project Management related debates | quantmleap/2010/03/26/the-illusion-of-control-dancing-with-chance/#comment-721Tue, 29 Mar 2011 00:33:47 +0000/?p=812#comment-721[…] Pat Weaver – The illusion of control: dancing with chance […]

]]>By: Lynda Bourne/2010/03/26/the-illusion-of-control-dancing-with-chance/#comment-388Sun, 28 Mar 2010 10:00:32 +0000/?p=812#comment-388Another dimension to the illusion of control is that individuals who have power to think they have more personal control over outcomes than they, in fact, do. Power has been demonstrated to lead to perceived control over outcomes that were either uncontrollable or unrelated to the power. For more on this see: The powerful illusion of control at http://stakeholdermanagement.wordpress.com/2010/03/28/the-powerful-illusion-of-control/

]]>By: The powerful illusion of control « Stakeholder Management's Blog/2010/03/26/the-illusion-of-control-dancing-with-chance/#comment-385Sun, 28 Mar 2010 09:40:09 +0000/?p=812#comment-385[…] The illusion of control: dancing with chance […]

]]>By: The powerful illusion of control | Stakeholder/2010/03/26/the-illusion-of-control-dancing-with-chance/#comment-383Sun, 28 Mar 2010 09:36:30 +0000/?p=812#comment-383[…] The illusion of control: dancing with chance […]

]]>By: Pat Weaver/2010/03/26/the-illusion-of-control-dancing-with-chance/#comment-381Sun, 28 Mar 2010 06:02:51 +0000/?p=812#comment-381In reply to Glen B Alleman.

you are right Glen, but the problem is somewhat deeper that just understanding statistical probability. What most people fail to realise is that any simulation, including Monte Carlo has a range error. The result may be 90%, 95% or even 99% reliable but there is still a possibility of a result falling outside of the predicted range. Historical data is not a guarantor of future outcomes, only an indicator of what should happen; as was clearly demonstrated in a near miss disaster in 2003 – see Seconds From Disaster at /2010/03/28/seconds-from-disaster/

]]>By: Seconds From Disaster « Aavssitedev’s Blog/2010/03/26/the-illusion-of-control-dancing-with-chance/#comment-380Sun, 28 Mar 2010 05:54:45 +0000/?p=812#comment-380[…] Legal← The illusion of control: dancing with chance […]

]]>By: Glen B Alleman/2010/03/26/the-illusion-of-control-dancing-with-chance/#comment-377Sat, 27 Mar 2010 16:46:04 +0000/?p=812#comment-377Pat and Shim,

There’s a difference between probability and statistics.

http://herdingcats.typepad.com/my_weblog/2010/03/probability-v-statistics-in-cost-and-schedule.html

is a quick survey of the problem. You are correct Pat in that people fall into the trap of “dancing with chance,” but it is because they don’t separate probability from statistics.

This is the source of the mandated use of Monte Carlo Simulation in the domain we work. The MCS provides the means to define the underlying statistics – either from part performance or through a model. Then the probability of reaching a goal (date or cost) can be modeled.

]]>By: Pat Weaver/2010/03/26/the-illusion-of-control-dancing-with-chance/#comment-375Fri, 26 Mar 2010 22:07:06 +0000/?p=812#comment-375In reply to Shim Marom.

Agree Shim,

But it’s a cute title and the message about uncertainty is still ignored by most managers and lawyer’s, particularly senior ones.

]]>By: Shim Marom/2010/03/26/the-illusion-of-control-dancing-with-chance/#comment-374Fri, 26 Mar 2010 21:53:10 +0000/?p=812#comment-374Hi Pat, thanks for bringing this book to my attention. Having read through your post, though, I’m not clear on what new message has this book brought alight? It seems to repeat concepts that are already well and truly in the public domain. What’s your view on this?

Cheers, Shim Marom
http://www.quantmleap.com

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