Calculating a projected project completion date is subjective! Depending on the tools used for assessing the status, and predicting the completion, of this simple project the assessment can vary from:
We don’t really know,
The work is currently behind schedule but we are not sure by how much,
The work is 5 weeks, 1 month, or 3 weeks late, or
The project completion is expected to be either 3 weeks, 1 month or 4 months late!
The answer depends on the tool you are using, and the way it is used.
Our latest paper, Calculating Completion, uses the simple project shown above to assess the subjective and objective information available from: Bar Charts, Burndown Charts, Kanban Boards, Velocity, CPM, EVM + ES, and Work Performance Management (WPM). It explains the way the results are derived by each of the tools and the options open to users to vary the result.
The challenge for project controls experts, is all of the answers above can be realistically extracted from one or more of these tools! Deciding which option is correct is an altogether more complex question, there probably is no single correct answer!
In March 2023 the PGCS hosted a half-day international webinar looking at the development of Earned Schedule in the 20 years since its initial publication by Walt Lipke in 2003. An article reviewing this significant milestone event written by Robert Van De Velde has been published in the May 2023 edition of PM World Journal, read Robert’s review at: PGCS Webinar: Earned Schedule at 20 Years–A Recap
The next major event on the PGCS calendar, supported by Mosaic Project Services, is the 2023 Symposium, to be held in Canberra from 22nd to 24th August, details are at: https://www.pgcsymposium.org.au/ it not too late to be part of this exciting event.
We have supported two initiatives focused on celebrating the 20th anniversary of the launch of Earned Schedule in 2003. Earned Schedule (ES) resolved the long-standing dilemma of the EVM schedule indicators providing inaccurate information for late performing projects. ES provides the ability to predict project completion dates with more accuracy than CPM. It uses the same data as traditional EVM, but shifts the calculations from the cost axis to the time axis.
Our paper published in the March edition of PMWJ, rounds out our series on the history of Earned Value Management (EVM). Earned Schedule – the First 20 Years, traces the attempts to use EVM data to predict project completion dates from the 1990s through to the current time, including the development of ES during its first 20 years.
We were also a keen supporter of the PGCS world-wide webinar celebrating the anniversary. All of the presentations, and information on the presenters, sponsors and supporters are now available for review in the PGCS library at: https://www.pgcs.org.au/library1/2023-es-special-event/ You are encouraged to make full use of this free resource.
PGCS is a not-for-profit organization focused on helping improve project and program delivery and runs events throughout the year:
PGCS in collaboration with the developer of Earned Schedule, Walt Lipke, and seven other international experts will be running a free webinar on 8th March to celebrate the 20th Anniversary of Earned Schedule in the EVM marketplace. The webinar will run twice to make the sessions accessible to everyone, regardless of where you are in the world.
The presenters are: Walt Lipke: Earned Schedule, 20 years of innovation, past – present and future Kym Henderson: Validating Earned Schedule, the research and studies Keith Heitzman & Patrick Weaver: Interview with Keith Heitzman (NASA Contractor) Robert Van de Velde: Act Fast, Think Fast: Agile Schedule Performance Paulo André de Andrade: Research on a categoriser to enhance expected project duration forecasting performance using ES Mario Vanhoucke: A 20-year academic research journey summarized in one presentation Michael Higgins: Telling the time in the UK Yancy Qualls: Do You Trust Your IMS? (Earned Schedule vs. Traditional IECDs in a forecasting accuracy showdown)
Registration is free, and each of the presentations will be made available to webinar participants for review after the event.
Using Earned Value Management (EVM) to improve project governance and controls is not as hard as you think! This just uploaded presentation from PC Expo MEL looks at establishing, operating, and running an EVMS, based on Australian Standard AS4817:2019 (the Australian adoption of ISO 21508), using simple tools.
It briefly covers: – Understanding EVM, what it is, and what it is not – Defining the key elements and objectives of EVM, and – The creation, and use of EVM on a small bridge project.
Over the last couple of months there has been a discussion running in the Project Management World Journal around the purpose of EVM. The general consensus seems to be EVM is a performance management system, focused on measuring the performance of the managers assigned to manage the work packages, control accounts and overall project. Identifying emerging issues early, at the work package level allows management intervention to improve the situation.
EVM was developed in the 1960s, based on PERT COST, which in turn was developed from the PERT TIME scheduling system[1]. EVM also drew on the well-established practice of cost engineering[2], but these two disciplines are designed for very different purposes. Cost engineering is focused on project cost estimating and control, EVM is focused on performance management. Appreciating the difference between financial management, cost accounting, cost engineering, and earned value management is important for their successful implementation. These terms are not, and never have been, synonymous.
I will be busy helping run PGCS 2022 in Canberra next week (16th to 18th August). It is shaping up to be a great event with over 400 people signed up to attend: https://www.pgcsymposium.org.au/ Then my focus will shift to Project Controls Expo Australia 2022! https://projectcontrolexpo.com/aus/
Project Controls Expo Australia 2022 will run in Melbourne from 29th to 30th November and has a packed program totally focused on project controls. I will be busy on both days:
On the 29th in the ‘back to basic’s zone’ my session is: EVM – it’s not as hard as you think! This session will look at establishing and operating and running an EVMS, based on Australian Standard AS4817:2019 (the Australian adoption of ISO 21508), using simple tools. The session will briefly cover: – Understanding EVM, what it is, and what it is not. – Define the key elements and objectives of EVM – Demonstrate the creation, and use of EVM on a small bridge project.
Then on the 30th I will be looking at a major challenge to traditional CPM and forensic assessment in: Scheduling Challenges in Horizontally Distributed Projects
The challenges of scheduling, managing, and claiming delays in, ‘horizontally distributed projects’ are not well supported by traditional project controls paradigms.
Horizontally distributed projects have two dominant characteristics, the majority of the work is comprised of a series of physically separated units that are similar or identical in design, and the logical dependencies between the different units are either non-existent or minimal (think of an off-shore wind farm).
In this type of project, most of the components are identical and can be used anywhere, which means the work can be planned in almost any sequence, and that sequence can be easily changed at almost any time. This type of project is not well supported by either traditional CPM, or ‘line of balance’ scheduling.
The primary consideration in planning is optimizing resource flows, and the consequences of re-sequencing are not based around traditional CPM logic, rather the loss in resource efficiency which is much more difficult to assess and measure. Particularly when you need to separate productive efficiencies under the control of the contractor from disruption caused by re-sequencing.
This presentation will define the concept of a ‘horizontally distributed project’, and then based on some practical examples, highlight the challenges of assessing delay and disruption based on traditional paradigms of CPM scheduling. It will conclude by offering suggested ways to adapt project controls and contractual requirements to provide a sensible assessment of project delays. As soon as PGCS is over, finishing the research and writing this presentation is my next challenge.
This paper looks at the creation of earned value management (EVM) in the 1960s and its development and evolution through to the 2020s. However, the concept of EVM did not suddenly appear, the foundations of EVM were laid by previous generations, this paper demonstrates EVM is a synthesis of ideas and concepts some of which are hundreds of years old. The four precursors to EVM are the use of computers to calculate time schedules (CPM and PERT), sophisticated engineering cost controls, the use of breakdown structures to aid management, and the emergence of the concept of modern project management.
The use of computers to analyze project schedules in the late 1950s brought science to the management of time. There was a strong desire in the US Government for similar levels of sophistication to be applied to cost management on defense projects. This was the catalyst for the development of EVM in the early 1960s. The development of scheduling is traced in the papers listed in The History of Scheduling.
The discipline of engineering cost management was well established in the early part of the 20th century and its roots are much older. The limitation was the process of cost control using paper based manual systems tended to be retrospective. The development of cost engineering is traced in The History Cost Controls.
The idea of using breakdown structures to define, and then control, work also has a very long history. The Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) is at the heart of EVM. The development of the WBS is described in The Origin of Work Breakdown Structures (WBS).
Finally, a project controls system needs a defined project to control. The concept of modern project management is relatively new, although again its roots are very deep. Its development is traced in Origins, and trends in, modern project management.
When these different strands of development were brought together in the USA in the 1960s, EVM emerged. Tracing each of the histories outlined above has been a fascinating journey. The papers and many of the source materials are freely available to download from the history section of the Mosaic website: https://mosaicprojects.com.au/PMKI-ZSY.php.
The problem with studying history is every time you look at something, there’s other interesting facets to analyze and research. I have identified two areas where I’m likely to go next (but not for a few months): – Documenting the early mainframe computer software that was used for CPM, PERT and EVM. – In March 2023 Earned Schedule will be 20 years old, its development and the challenges will make an interesting story.
As part of an on-going project to publish a history of EVM (target August 2022) I’m reviewing a lot of resources accumulated over a number of years. One of the first outputs is an update to our paper ‘The CPI Stability Myth’ – this review and update draws on a number of new resources to show where the research is applicable, where the 20% stability myth does not apply.
Project Managers 4 The World, Charity Event on April 27 & 28, 2022: 24 hours talk around the clock in support of children and families from Ukraine is over. The event was a great success thanks to Patric Eid, Oliver F. Lehmann, and a panel of 24 speakers from around the world: https://charity-conference.com/speaker-list-april-27-2022/
I am proud to have been a part of this unique, 100% volunteer event.
My presentation was: Governing and Leading Projects using Earned Value Management (EVM). Good management and good governance require good information. When implemented effectively EVM is a robust, practical system focused on assessing and supporting the managers of a project. Based on the framework in ISO 21508, this presentation will provide an overview of the 11 steps needed to implement EVM effectively.
Pat Weaver
Lynda Bourne
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