Project managers seem to be becoming too focused on risk averse decision making and scientific ‘studies’ to determine the right answer in situations where there is probably no right answer (or the ‘scientific knowledge’ is not available). Better information should lead to better decisions but there’s usually competing issues of urgency and the cost of deciding
This is where experience cuts in. Medieval stonemasons knew the proportions needed to construct Gothic Cathedrals centuries before the science of engineering design evolved. These ancient structures were designed according to semi-empirical rules based on few simplified mechanical principles; nevertheless, their structural performance has been rather good in most cases. The ‘rules’ of proportions evolved over centuries and were passed on through the guilds. Similar sets of knowledge informed shipbuilding, and most other technical endeavours before the 19th century.
This accumulation of context specific knowledge is the genesis of the engineering method: Solving problems using heuristics (rule of thumb) that create the best chance of a workable solution, using the available resources, in a poorly understood situation.
The engineering method can be used to solve practical problems before full scientific knowledge is available and can be particularly useful in most aspects of project management – no one knows the future. But you also need to be prepared to find out you have made a mistake.
To paraphrase René Descartes, Discourse on the Method: ‘Situations in life often permit no delay, and when we cannot determine the course which is certainly best, we must follow the one which is probably the best. …… This frame of mind also freed me from the repentance and remorse commonly felt by those vacillating individuals who are always seeking worthwhile things that they later judge as bad[1].
For more on practical decision making see: https://mosaicprojects.com.au/PMKI-TPI-010.php#Decisions
[1] The full quote is: ‘And thus since often enough in the actions of life no delay is permissible, it is very certain that, when it is beyond our power to discern the opinions which carry most truth, we should follow the most probable; and even although we notice no greater probability in the one opinion than in the other, we at least should make up our minds to follow a particular one and afterwards consider it as no longer doubtful in its relationship to practice, but as very true and very certain, inasmuch as the reason which caused us to determine upon it is known to be so. And henceforward this principle was sufficient to deliver me from all the penitence and remorse which usually affect the mind and agitate the conscience of those weak and vacillating creatures who allow themselves to keep changing their procedure, and practice as good, things which they afterwards judge to be evil’.
Pat Weaver
Lynda Bourne
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