This webinar presented as part of the free PGCS 2023 Webinar Series looked at two processes that are ‘baked into’ standard project management estimating and control to show how recommended good practices are still optimistically biased.
- When preparing an estimate good practice recommends using Monte Carlo to determine an appropriate contingency and the level of risk to accept. However, the typical range distributions used are biased – they ignore the ‘long tail’.
- When reporting progress, the estimating bias should be identified and rectified to offer a realistic projection of a project outcome. Standard cost and schedule processes typically fail to adequately deal with this challenge meaning the final time and cost overruns are not predicted until late in the project.
This webinar highlighted at least some of the causes for these problems. Solving the cultural and management issues is for another time. Download the PDF of the slides, or view the webinar at: https://mosaicprojects.com.au/PMKI-PBK-046.php#Process2
Pat Weaver
Lynda Bourne
Aavssitedev's Blog
While I agree with the “Long Tail” problem (reference both NASA’s Glen Butts and Bent Flyvbjerg), I think you are missing the true “bull in the China shop,” and that is there are too many planners/schedulers today who are infatuated with overly simplistic CPM software and who have little or no hands-on field experience in their field of expertise.
These are the “Rules of Thumbs” that we have adopted as “hard money” contractors as both OWNERS and CONTRACTORS:
RULE #1- “No battle plan survives first contact with the enemy.” (von Moltke)
RULE #2- “Plans are USELESS, but planning is ESSENTIAL.” (Eisenhower)
RULE #3- “Amateurs study STRATEGY while Professionals study LOGISTICS.” (Abrams)
RULE #4- “Reality eats strategy for breakfast.”12 (paraphrased from Drucker)
RULE #5- “God (or the devil?) lies in the details.” Van Der Rohe)
Click to access pmwj133-Sep2023-Giammalvo-futility-of-master-plans-prepared-with-little-or-no-hands-on-experience.pdf
If you actually read the PDF (or listened to the webinar) you would find the lack of skills is seen as a root cause of the problem (and solution): “We need investment in estimating and project controls skills (beyond using tools)”.
As always, I did read the .PDF. My concern is the FOCUS was too much on the “Fat Curve” but not enough on the real “root causes,” which was (IMPO) glossed over with a lack of “We need investment in estimating and project controls skills (beyond using tools)”.
Right now today, I am in the 19th week of teaching a 24-week course to 18 oil & gas professionals who are 25 to 35 years experienced engineers, most of whom hold “project controls” positions and cannot even create a CPM Schedule for their own work and then follow their own CPM Schedule. And many of these people hold Master’s degrees in Project Management, and a few hold their PMP.
The problem is NOT the “Long” or “Fat Tail” but a total revisiting and upgrading of the system of “investment in estimating and project controls skills (beyond using tools)”
We are in violent agreement Paul.